Wednesday 19 October 2016

Father, Tiger - High Time We Stop Playing Victim to a Highly Inferior Entity

There is a famous story in Telugu which goes by the name Father, Tiger. It says, a boy guarding his family cows, once thinks of playing a prank. Suddenly he shouts, father, tiger. His father comes running, he sees his son laughing. This happens a few times. Suddenly one day, a tiger really comes. How much he shouts, no one turns up. The moral is, there is an expiry date for everything.
This is exactly what the Modi government is staring at, today. Pakistan is the Ivy League of Terrorism, Pakistan is the Mother Ship of Terrorism, people liked it and clapped. India conducted surgical strikes across the border. People were supportive. Well, there were mischievous elements in power which questioned the veracity of Indian Government and Indian Army by questioning whether the strikes happened or not, opening a can of worms and a hell lot of political vitriol, but the world got bored of that as well.
There are two aspects of that - How judicious is it for a person in authority to question the strikes themselves? A line should be drawn somewhere differentiating party and government. If you don’t do that? Whether the strikes happened or not, the reality is that it has achieved it’s goal. India proved that Pakistan is a state sponsor of terror by killing mercenaries inside the country and broke the myth of Pakistani military invincibility and called the bluff of nuclear threat. It’s a great achievement and every government is bound to milk mileage over it. But, what did we do?
China has got it’s own reasons to support Pakistan and Russia it’s own to take a stand which doesn’t suit India. What is India expected to do? Crib? Complain? Show them the contempt they deserve? India complained and cribbed. It didn’t show it’s toughness in dealing with the issue. The world has accepted that Pakistan is a pariah state. What is India doing to keep it hemmed just there? What is India doing to cut down it’s support?
First mistake. India should decouple Kashmir and Pakistan. The government did it to some extent but still complains to the world over Pakistan perpetrated terror in Kashmir. If there is a cross border fire or a terror attack, respond in kind. A terror attack should be responded by destroying a few launchpads, a ceasefire violation by destruction of the whole sector. That will tell the world what India’s tolerance is breached.
Second mistake. Pakistan is not India’s equal. India has the third highest PPP in the world, second highest population, seventh highest area, third largest army, one of the highest defence spenders in the world, one of the only four countries capable of launching satellites and what not? It was an island of stability for the whole world when markets started crashing. What is Pakistan before us? With India, what can they compete with? They have a proven track record of losing every war they fought and a failed state where the civil government has zero say in the government. Is that the country we are supposed to compare ourselves with? India’s real comparision lies with USA, China, Germany, Japan and Russia. Where can we compete them with? That is what India should focus on - what are the strengths of these countries and how can India join their club, if not beat them?
But to do justice to the Modi Government, by blocking access to the NGOs, we have seen a steep fall in cases of human rights violations against the army, they have made Hurriyat inconsequential, the pinch related to manpower, firepower and money is felt day in and day out by the mercenaries, in a fell swoop, it arrested the instigators of stone pelting there by crashing the movement and if the same stranglehold is kept for a decade, Kashmir will turn peaceful. There is rioting in Baltistan, Balochistan and PoK against Pakistani atrocities and the army is having a hard time crushing it.
This needs a fundamental change in the country’s thought process. A few things which should be done are -
1. Relegate every news regarding Pakistan to the last page of a newspaper.
2. Any terror attack should be responded in kind. An attack has a few components - funders, executors and supply chain. The executors are terminated, and every attack should follow by dismantling the funders and supply chain. Any Pakistani military material captured on the terminated need not be shown as proof to the world, but should be responded with demolition of infrastructure in cross border fire.
3. Any cross border fire should be returned in kind. Though the government asked the military to respnond, the aim should be demolition of a sector or a part of it completely.
4. Threaten Pakistan publicly stating we are capable of killing your economy any day but we won’t do such because we are civilized people. One simple example can suffice what we can do. We will send a public notifier to everyone in the world stating any ship which is supposed to go to Karachi port, if it unloads it’s stock in Kandla, it will be paid 1.3 times the money it gets in Karachi. And all legal liabilities will be transferred to Indian Government. It is that simple for us to destroy you. But, the question is what will we achieve doing that.
5. Entry of private players into manufacture of simple ordnance like AK47s and magazines or mortars or LMGs. This will reduce the pressure on government sector, allowing it to focus on real research.
The focus of all these is to ensure that Pakistani military will not pose any threat to India.
Next is the isolation of Pakistan and increase it’s suffering. Note that the fight is against Pakistani establishment and not Pakistani populace. They can be the sufferers but not the targets.
1. Since MFN is reciprocative, think of scrapping it off.
2. A big no to subverting Indus water treaty because the people hurt will be common people. India should go extra mile to say that India honours it because farmers are farmers and is ready to sacrifice a part of it’s share. This should be followed by a propaganda blitz
3. No to jobs, cross border trade, religious and cultural tourism.
4. Scaling down the diplomatic representation and providing voice to Baltis, Balochs and all those suffering.
Next is Pakistani isolation in the global arena. The biggest of the supporters of Pakistan in the world is China. What are Chinese interests in propping up Pakistan? A strong and investor friendly India will pull out all manufacture from China into India which as a country, China can never accept. The consequence of this is that there will be a sudden rise in unemployment and discontent leading to a potential collapse. To ensure this doesn’t happen, China will have to show India as unsafe to invest. What more can be more apt than supporting Pakistan which will always be ready to blast a few bombs in strategic areas? And how are the world powers ranged? America will collapse if China pulls out all it’s investments from the country. From the terms of bilateral trade and weapons sale, China is too big to handle for Russia. Neither of them are going to take sides between India and China. India can break China simply because by violating it’s age old Mandala System, China added more burden to it and hence is more of an artificial country with faultlines clearly drawn. But, a friendly China is more in India’s interests than a broken one. There are two things India can do - scuttle CPEC which India already did, but it needs to complete the demolition. This will ensure that there will be no Chinese presence in that area. Every country has it’s own price. Ask China it’s price in return for China occupied Kashmir, recognition of Dalai Lama and a say in the election of next Dalai Lama. Instead of CPEC, what India will offer is a land route from China directly through India with multiple areas of entry and multiple ports of exit, at a negotiated price and if needed, open borders between both the countries, opening a two way trade relationship. After all, China is using Pakistan to maintain it’s position in the market. If India is ready to give that to China, what’s the need for China to be belligerent to India?
The bottomline is this. Pakistan is a minor irritant and it should be shown it’s place. India needs to compete with the economic and industrial giants of the world and not midgets. The change in outlook is what is needed desperately.

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